Bu makale 2003 Ağustos ayında tamamlandı ve Los Angeles'ta düzenlenen ISAR 2003 Konferansında sunuldu. Ingiliz Astroloji Derneği Journal'ının Temmuz 2004 sayısında yayınlandı.

Peace and War Cycles in the Middle East

R. Hakan Kirkoglu D.F.Astrol.S.

In this study, my aim is to present you a perspective on how planetary cycles shape and disintegrate political agenda bringing war and peace. First, I would like to show you a broad picture in terms of slower planets indices. A planetary index based on the sum of the waxing and waning cycles from Jupiter to Pluto gives us Ganeau Equilibrium Index. It is generated by the sum of the waxing and waning cycles of the planets from Jupiter to Pluto. The original idea is that waxing cycle which begins with the synodic conjunction and reaches it climax point at the opposition represents outgoing, expressive and active part. In this part the cycle, as we all know, things are put forward, new ideas flourish and new paradigms are created, while cycle unfolding. The closing part of the cycle, waning phase begins with the opposition and it has reflective, reactionary nature, and finally disintegrates what was put forward in the first phase. Now, we can name it as a equilibrium index. If the planetary index is in the increasing cycle, we could assume that a new equilibrium are being established we can talk about relatively peaceful period. In this respect, closing cycle which is shown here by the decreasing total number of the index means that things are disintegrating in a directionless period with a lack of concrete direction. So sharp decrease in the index alert us that a period of chaos is on the horizon. Historical data showed us that major war periods are closely coincides with this lowering Index.

Let’s look at the first and the second world war perıods. As we have seen, the Ganeau Index shows big drops in these periods. In an index from Jupiter to Pluto, the most varying component of this index is the pair of Jupiter and Saturn. and Jupiter and Saturn are called great timers in terms of political, sociological and economic moves. Jupiter is the expansion and the great confidence  and is keen to advent  further while Saturn has the qualities of cooling, restricting and putting brakes on. Recently, in the last synodic cycle of Jupiter/Saturn cycle we witnessed that new paradigms are put forward in the 80’s like star wars in the USA, new monetary economic policies in the USA and United Kingdom under Margaret Thatcher’s goverment. Contrary, in the closing cycle of the last Jup/Saturn cycles which ended in May 2000 world politics did not repeat such agressive stands as we have recently seen in the new waxing period. Now, as the recent Jup/Saturn synod in the May 2000  gathers momentum, once again we see a new world order or at least  new emerging intents are taking shape. I am going to show this chart and its relevance with the ongoing process in the middle east but first let’s look at the Ganeau Index more closely.

For this period, between 1997 and 2005, this time I added faster moving Mars in to the picture to ascertain the monthly effects in the coming years.




Are we in a peaceful period or disturbances reign ? Clearly, the index show us that a declining major trend is on the horizon for us. In order to make emphasize this trend, I added a line showing the moving average of the index for 16 months, in this smoothed line, we witness a pivotal turning point at September 2001 !! Beginning from this month, the world became more wild and more chaotic despite some monthly increases and lower points. For example, we see a sharp increase in December 2001 after the US’ intervention into Afghanistan after September 11th attack. Although the index went relatively higher in the first half of the year 2002, it plunges again October again and this period reflected US’s intention of war against Iraq. Well, the index was went flat between October 2002 and March 2003 when US began to deploy its army into the Gulf region and it went up in March 2003 with the war against Iraq.

What we could foresee for the coming months, when I was preparing this article in June 2003, the index was almost flat March through September, but there is (was) a relatively low point in September 2003 and the index will be improving very slowly untill April 2004 and after April’s low, there is even much lower point between September till June 2005.

Please take a  note of these periods! Between September 2004 and June 2005 a decisive turmoil in the Middle East can be expected as the astrological charts of Israel, Arafat and the synodic chart of the Jupiter-Saturn. Let’s look at the latest Jupiter-Saturn synod occured in 2000 and subsequent major aspectual turning points. Jupiter-Saturn cycle has always been considered of the greatest importance in shaping the course of history. These two planets used to be known as the ‘Great Chronocrators’, or rulers of the ages. This cycle can be considered the ground base of human development which marks the interaction betwen the perception of ideas, potentialities, possibilities, Jupiter, and their manifestation in the concrete material word, Saturn.

Now, we are also witnessing one of the turning points in terms of this important cycle as the synodic conjunction of the two occured last time in the earth signs whose cycle dates back 240 years ago. Jupiter-Saturn patterns repeats its elemental emphasis for each 240 years and the next conjunction will be in the air signs starting with Aquarius in 2020.  Evidently, we can assume that the last conjunction in the earth signs will have strong repercussion on the material side of the things, world resources such as oil and water and of course the  land itself. What we are talking about is, in fact, a new age will have dawned by 2020 with the beginning of new series of Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions in the air signs. It may also mean that a major partition of the world and new borders will already be finalized by this time.

Jupiter and Saturn formed its first semi-square in March 2003 when war on iraq was going on, these semi-square were active from October 2002 till 2003 July. Next Jupiter-Saturn sextile will be operative beginning from 2003 November till 2004 August. For this period, we already noticed that May 2004 and Aug-September will be even more intense when the sextile will be ending.

Jupiter and Saturn was at the highest point in that chart and it was evident that USA was the mover of the new world order. For Israel and the Middle East, Jupiter-Saturn which was located on the western horizon of the chart shows that this part of the word was actually acted upon!! As the synod, unfold untill 2010 we will be witnessing that political and economic powers of the Middle East will be totally transformed into a new structure.

Let’s look at the  estimated chart of Yassir Arafat briefly as this chart gives us a historical background of the Middle East dilemma and it is closely related with the last Jupiter-Saturn conjunction which occured exactly on his Taurus Moon (land) in the eleventh house of hopes. Cancer rising with Pluto here shows the challenge and the destiny for securing and defending his own nationhood and the land and through the mutual reception between Moon in Taurus in the eleventh and the Venus in Cancer, Arafat had been seen as a symbol of Palestinian movement, as if he was naturally born to. However, what’s here the  major cause of much disruption and upheavel between Jewish and Arabic people ? Here we can directly see the long standing effects of the Yod structure, Saturn in Sagittarius being the apex, bringing much struggle and adjustment in order to fully realize Venus and Moon. Obviously, Saturn in Sagittarius stands for the blocks arising from religional issues, a block which takes a life time struggle.

Another leading personality of Israeli politics Ariel Sharon also seems to responding to the current Jupiter-Saturn cycle as his Moon is at 25 degrees of Taurus which is closely related with Arafat’s Moon and the Israel’s Sun as well. Furthermore,Israel’s natal Sun in the eight house clearly indicates that they are chained to struggle for land and sharing is the only raison d’etre, ultimately.

The composite chart of Arafat and Sharon is something which we should not over look.:A powerful stellium in Taurus in the 12th house along with a balsamic moon. Such a strong 12th house stands for that both parties seem to be out of control in reaching for a clear cut final agreement as the balsamic moon has to move on to conjunct with the north node of the Moon (fatedness) and oppose to Mars. In addition to that Neptune in the fourth house of the composite chart (an utopic state of having a land) is in partile square to the nodes. It’s impossible to arrive a realistic end in terms of past and future developments. Karmic struggle for nations is evident.

Well, whats is so clear that Pluto, the planet of major transformation and purgation will be hovering on Arafat’s Saturn in the next couple of years. The first half of the 2005 and finally the end of 2005, these are the utmost important  periods for the Middle East. During this period, transiting Saturn, as well, will have arrived the ascending degree of Arafat while Jupiter on the IC, a sure sign of new begginings and endings.

Let us look at now, Israel chart for the same period of great changes. In the first half of 2005, the transiting nodal axis will be crossing on Israel’s Asc-Dsc axis, bringing much stress on give and take issues and foreign diplomacy. Evidently, this will be the time of open hostilities have to be carefully considered. In the meantime, we also see that Saturn, here as the lord of the Ivth house, the house of land and national roots, will be visiting Xth house, the government and the future of the nation. We could assume that transiting Saturn, just before Saturn return will bring much struggle and if consciously conducted, much considerable, solid advancement in terms of Arab-Israeli disputes over land. It seems quite unsettling that transiting Neptune as well will be opposing natal Saturn during these most important periods.

It is also interesting that the Total Solar Eclipse which will occur on October 3rd 2005 will last 4,5 minutes and if we consider 1 min equals 1 year of time, symbolically, we already have been in the activity period od this eclipse starting from July 2003. The middle east will be eclipsed by this eclipse as seen the shadow will pass over the region. Please note that retrograde Mars will be exactly on the Sun of Israel and the eclipse is on the Neptune. Neptune here it can be seen as the idealized states of the things and it is placed in Libra, the sign of peace and cooperation but its 12th house position surely indicates that it may be just an illusion and out of reach.  The same point , Neptune, is also conjunct with a striking Arabic part, Pars Haeraditatum vel possesionum (1), part of inheritances and possesions, which clearly reflects that the issues of land and the utilization of the inherited land will cause struggles as this pars is located in the 12th house and its in partile trine to Mercury in the 8th house, ruler of the 9th house (religion) It’s lord Venus is also in Cancer and in the 9th house.

Finally, during the same period, transiting Pluto will also be in quincunx aspect to the Sun in Israel chart. Power struggles and tensions relating major transformation will be evident.

Another chart which is organically related with Israel is the proclamation chart by Herz in 29 Aug 1897. In this chart as well, for the period in consideration, Saturn will be in trine to the Saturn and will conjunct with the lord of the Asc.  Pluto will focus our attention to the Moon-Neptune square which indicates the ideals of the Jewish people.

Lastly, Saturn-Uranus cycle which always have been critical for the region, have to be considered. This planetary pair will be in tense aspects untill the second half of 2006. This 33 year cycle, as pointed out with astrologers, appears to have a great deal to do with emerging nations and very deep cultural transformations, purgations and ressurectiond. Especially independence issues will surface under Saturn-Pluto apects.

Interesting to note that, during the first half 2005 they’re in quincunx and in the second half, a waning sesquiquadrate will develop.  Upon the pyschology of these aspects, the first half present us uneasy solutions, major adjustments and gigantic efforts in order to put things in order, the second half, due to the nature of the semi-squares, this tension can release and obstacles can be openly dealt with though  the issue is very hard to move itself.

I’ll end up this study with a chart which can be assumed a natal chart for Middle East itself. This is the chart for the decisions taken by the League of Nations on April 25th 1920 in San Remo As we already knows, current middle east countries were once the provinces of Ottoman Empirer and the whole process actually began by the collapse and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. In San Remo conference, a mandate system was adopted in which the French madates of Syria and Lebanon, and the English mandates Palestine. Mosul, Baghdad and Basra as well were given the British rule. In the same conference, a national home for Jewish people as well was to be established.

In this chart, we see again Saturn-Uranus signature, they are in exact opposition. Pluto as well, in the same is seen in the same pattern in aspect to both planets.

Symbolically here, the native people can be seen as the Moon, which conjoins with Jupiter and Neptune. A people with strong religious beliefs, and the Sun can been seen as western powers, Britain and France at that time, (2) the square aspect between obiviously reflects the interests were in square in each other.  Another indication, Jupiter-Neptune just on the 2nd house cusp can also interpreted as the oil and resources of the land. But as these planets are in the sign of Leo, the dispositor, The sun are holding back and clearly controling influence on these.

We cannot ignore Mars in this chart and its in his deteriment here, located in Libra, but it is also on an anaretic degree reminding much worse quality of his essence. Although it is in mutual reception with Mars, I think this combination put more emphasis on martian qualities so far.  Furthermore, there is an Arabic point here, the point of revenues or riches (3) (like fortune, but it is called Pars substantiae) and its exactly conjoins with Mars. It is a clear symbol that the
chart shows the worst martian qualities associated with the riches of the region. As we all see, pars fortuna as well, is located here, and both are disposed by ill positioned Venus and Venus is disposited by Mars.

When we look at the upcoming major transits, firstly we will witness a Uranus return, both activiting Saturn-Uranus opposittion and the Sun  and this aspect again will be active in the same period in which we expect an irreversible major change seems evident. This is period between the second of 2004 and the first half of 2005. Uranus shakes and totally alters the established structures. It will be opposite to Saturn naturally.

In the same period, we are also going to have Saturn transit over the ascendant creating a new base for structuring the region. This is a major turning point for the region.

Why Jupiter-Saturn cycle is the determining factor especially for this chart ? The cycle which began in 2000, which we examined earlier, will have its opposition in 2010. Jupiter and Saturn oppose each other at the late degrees of Virgo-Pisces and at the early degrees of Aries-Libra. And it’s this aspect that exactly falls on meridian axis of this chart.

Another Saturn return in 2008 and Pluto Pluto opposition in 2011 are on the way which will be evidently repercussions of the upcoming Uranus return in the next couple of years.

Finally, here I would like to consider the chart of Iraq and several solar return charts for the upcoming years.

This date and time is taken from Nicholas Campion’s The book of World Horoscopes stating that Iraqi kingdom was recognized at 6.am on 23 august 1921 in Baghdad.

Needless to say, Uranus recent opposition transit to the both  Sun and Asc ruler Mercury brought us the downfall of the regime and Uranus’ transit over the horizon will bring new beginnings especially at the Uranus return which will be fully realized in 2005.

As for the previous solar return year witnessing the war, cardinal point, aries 0 degress was on the ascendant and the war against Iraq started when the transit sun crossed over these degrees. Furthermore, this degree is also the cusp of the 8th house Iraq national chart symbolizing the end of the warrior ruler. It was also a chart of full moon bringing Mars and Uranus into the scene.

Now what we see from the current solar return chart, cancer rising with 13 degree and this is the degree where USA natal sun located, a clear sign of USA presence but Saturn is also there, and being the ruler of the 7th house, the house of others and open enemies, show us the difficult period along with asc ruler is in the 12th house of undoing. Cancer is in the 11th house of natal Iraq chart and it certainly reflects the plans for a new parliament has to be established and it won't be easy and smooth cause the MC ruler Jupiter is in quincunx aspect with MC and its on the cusp of neighbouring countries so their interest also have to be taken in to account.

For the next year, 2004 return, 25 degrees of Virgo is asceding and its the natal ascendant pointing us that it will be very reshaping year as natal Jupiter and Saturn conjunction is closely on that degree. In this chart, both Asc and Mc rulers retrograde Mercury seen conjunct with the sun in the 12th house and cause the sun rules the 12th house, again such a link will surely bring additional problems and many changes and unrest. It is also evident that Mars presence there, being the ruler of the 8th house and Mars dispositorship over Scorpio Moon, talk about the internal conflict and unrest of the public, such as frequent terroristic activities.

In the progress chart of Iraq, the full moon will be in January 2006 and around this period, a much stable and peaceful state can be arrived. As see we witness everyday, US soldiers in Iraq have been killed since the end of the war, and It seems that America’s any long term presence there will be met by much harder problems. The year 2006 could be here a turning point at which US would no longer desire to intervene into Iraq. The next president and administration starting in 2005 as well can be expected many u turn changes for the USA’s politics towards Middle East. It is also noteworthy that progressed full moon in the Iraq chart will occur at 22 degrees of Taurus/Scorpio axis, a repeating degree in the Middle East.

Concluding remarks

By combining equilibrium index with the chart relating to the region, be it countries and leaders or the charts for major cycles which showing social conditions, we can assume that Middle East will be the up front region of the recent Jupiter-Saturn cycle. As this is the cycle of the ending era, which actually started 240 years ago. We will have fully lived this major transformation of the region by latest 2010. However, the most troubling period is still ahead of us and the time period between the second of the 2004 and the first half 2005 will be the most shaping times of the decade. It is evident from the USA chart that, Pluto will oppose Mars, Saturn conjoining with Mercury which is the ruler of the 7th house of open enemies, and the prog. Sun will be in sesquiquadrate aspect to Saturn. It has also utmost importance for the USA psyche as during this time, progressed Sun will also have entered into Pisces. This is a new world order or a chaos, we’ll see altogether...

Chart Data and Sources

Yasser Arafat, estimated chart, August 27th, 1929, 02:00 am EET, Cairo, Egypt, 30N03, 31E15, DD unverified

Ariel Sharon, February 27, 1928, 7:49 am EET, Kafr Malal, Israel, 32N11, 324E54, A, from memory

Israel, May 14 1948, 04:00 pm EET, Tel Aviv, Israel, 32N04, 34E46, The Book of World Horoscopes, Nicholas Campion

Decision of League of Nations, April 25, 1920, 11:22 am MET, San Remo, Italy 43N48, 7E46, Mundane Astrology, Baigent, Campion, Harvey

Proclamation chart by Herz, August 29, 1897, 10:15 am CET, Basel, Switzerland, 47N33, 007E35, Anima Mundi, Charles Harvey

Iraq, August 23, 1921, 06:00 am, BAT, Baghdad, Iraq, 33N21, 44 E 25, The Book of World Horoscopes, Nicholas Campion

USA, July 4 1776, 17:10 LMT, Philadelphia, 39N57, 75W10, Mundane Astrology, Baigent, Campion, Harvey

References:

1)”The fifth part of the fourth house is called the part of inheritances or possesions or pars haeraditatum vel possesianum. It is taken by day or night from Saturn to Moon and projected from ascendant.” Quoted from Robert Zoller’s The Arabic Parts in Astrology

2)As stated by Nicolas Campion, Mundane Astrology, p.474

3)”The first part of the second house is called the part of substance or pars substantiae, which is taken by day or night from the lord of the house od substance to the degree of the house of substance and is projected from ascendant. And this part signifies the maintenance of the life of men and their profit and other things which are used by men for their sustenance.” Quoted from Robert Zoller’s The Arabic Parts in Astrology

Bibliography:

§ Michael Baigent, Nicholas Campion, Charles Harvey, Mundane Astrology, Aquarian, 1992
§ Nicholas Campion, The Book of World Horoscopes, Aquarian, 1988
§ Charles Ridoux, Evolution Geopolitique Mondiale: Le Tournant (1980-2020), Edition du Rocher, 2002
§ Robert Zoller, The Arabic Parts in Astrology, Inner Traditions International, 1989
§ Charles Harvey, Anima Mundi, CPA Press, 2002